Showing posts with label Blackhawks. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Blackhawks. Show all posts

Tuesday, September 11, 2007

Goaltending Profile: Central Division

The Central Division will see only 2 NHL jobs change from how they ended in 2006-07, but that includes perhaps the most dramatic off-season goaltending turnover. The trade of Tomas Vokoun from Nashville to Florida perhaps impacted the goaltending strength of those indivdual teams the most, but also was perhaps the single biggest loss by the Western Conference in talent this off-season to the Eastern Conference. The viability of Chris Mason and Pekka Rinne over a full season is perhaps the biggest goaltending question in the division this off-season, but other questions remain for other clubs. Is Detroit pushing Hasek too much? Is Khabibulin finally getting back into pre-lockout form for Chicago? Who is going to survive training camp in St. Louis? And are better times ahead for the Blue Jackets?

1. Detroit Red Wings

a. Starting Goaltender: Dominik Hasek, 42 years old
b. Backup Goaltender: Chris Osgood, 34 years old
c. Third Stringer/Top Prospect: Jimmy Howard, 23 years old
d. Adam Berkhoel, 26 years old

Training Camp Position Battles: None

Did we miss something here? Not only did “The Dominator” manage to post his first full healthy season since coming out of retirement in 2003, he did so in brilliant fashion. He played in 58 games, more than anyone could’ve predicted, and won 38 of them while being amongst the leaders in GAA, posting 8 shutouts, and backstopping the Red Wings to their first conference final since 2002. The question now remains whether Hasek can do it again. One of the keys to his success last year were regularly scheduled rest days, as well as never even dressing for games in which he was not scheduled to start. Because of the success of this approach last year, look for the Red Wings to add a goaltender off the waiver wire at the end of training camp, perhaps someone like Michael Leighton, Yann Danis, or Jason Bacashihua to play the part Joey MacDonald occupied for most of last year. Meanwhile, the Red Wings are going to give Jimmy Howard one more year to prove himself worthy of a promotion to the backup role. With Stefan Liv gone from the organization after 1 year of AHL duty, Howard should be able to play in close to 60 games as Grand Rapids’ undisputed #1 goalie.

2. Chicago Blackhawks

a. Starting Goaltender: Nikolai Khabibulin, 34 years old
b. Backup Goaltender: Patrick Lalime, 33 years old
c. Third Stringer/Top Prospect: Corey Crawford, 22 years old
d. Wade Flaherty, 39 years old
e. Mike Brodeur, 24 years old

Training Camp Position Battles: None

Khabibulin proved a tough goaltender to read in 2006-07. Although he had a bounceback campaign of sorts, improving on a terrible Chicago debut in 2005-06 which saw him battling injuries and posting a save percentage that could be confused with numbers a veteran AHL goaltender would put up in an emergency callup situation, he still left a lot to be desired. Perhaps it was the team in front of him, but Khabibulin used to look much better in the past when he had a poor supporting cast. At the mid-way point of his contract, it is evident that he will never live up to his lofty salary, which pays him the most amongst NHL goaltenders, tied with Roberto Luongo. The good news for Chicago is that there should be more competition for Khabibulin this year, with a healthy Patrick Lalime and a more NHL ready Corey Crawford behind him. Word out of Chicago is that Crawford is in the same situation as Jimmy Howard in Detroit, where the organization hopes to promote him to NHL backup duty by next training camp. Crawford was one of the AHL’s biggest workhorses last year, starting in 60 games.

3. Nashville Predators

a. Starting Goaltender: Chris Mason, 31 years old
b. Backup Goaltender/Top Prospect: Pekka Rinne, 24 years old
c. Third Stringer: Dan Ellis, 27 years old
d. Dov Grumet-Morris, 25 years old

Training Camp Position Battles: Backup Goaltender - Pekka Rinne & Dan Ellis

It’s not that Chris Mason hasn’t impressed when given the opportunity in Nashville, in fact his numbers were even better during last year’s regular season than his much wealthier goaltending partner, Vokoun. It’s just that Mason appeared in a career high 40 games last year, and with a projected backup goaltender in Pekka Rinne having only 2 NHL games of experience and coming off an injury-filled AHL campaign which limited him to 29 games, it just seems impossible to project how this new goaltending combo will work. And that’s without considering that the team in front of the goal crease took a significant talent hit this off-season as well. Mason & Rinne have both shown enough to warrant consideration for promotion, but having both go through the acclimatization period at the same time is fairly risky. Behind the new goaltending combo are two younger AHL journeymen in Dan Ellis and Dov Grumet-Morris. Ellis at one point looked like a potential backup in Dallas, but Mike Smith finally won the battle last year and Ellis might be at one of his last chances to get a NHL job this year with Nashville as a result.

4. St. Louis Blues

a. Starting Goaltender: Manny Legace, 34 years old
b. Backup Goaltneder: Juuso Riksman, 30 years old
c. Third Stringer: Hannu Toivonen, 23 years old
d. Jason Bacashiuha, 25 years old
e. Top Prospect: Marek Schwarz, 21 years old

Training Camp Position Battles: Backup Goaltender - Juuso Riksman, Hannu Toivonen, & Jason Bacashihua

You would’ve thought that when Manny Legace signed with St. Louis last offseason, his impressive streak of winning seasons would be at an end. But he was one of the catalysts in the Blues’ strong second half that had them move up from near the bottom of the NHL to 10th in the Western Conference, and at the end of the year, he finished with a 23-15-5 record, highlighted by 5 shutouts. Meanwhile, with Curtis Sanford out of the picture, the job of backing Legace up this year is once again open. The Blues signed veteran Finnish professional Juuso Riksman after a very strong season, including a stellar .949 SV% in the playoffs. He will be brought in to compete with two former first rounders, Hannu Toivonen (acquired in an offseason trade with Boston) and Jason Bacashihua, who appeared in 19 games for St. Louis last season. This will be one of the most competitive training camp battles in net in the entire NHL this September. The goaltender who finishes “3rd” could be traded, waived, re-assigned to a non-affiliated AHL organization or possibly even assigned to the ECHL. The reason for this is simple, the team’s top prospect, Marek Schwarz, is all but guaranteed a roster spot with the Blues’ AHL affiliate in Peoria. Just as a prediction, look for Bacashihua to be the odd man out in the Blues’ crowded crease. He has yet to make a significant push for a NHL job and is now 25, and the team brought in not just 1, but 2 new goalies this off-season to compete for one open job with him.

5. Columbus Blue Jackets

a. Starting Goaltender: Pascal Leclaire, 24 years old
b. Backup Goaltender: Frederik Norenna, 33 years old
c. Third Stringer: Tomas Popperle, 22 years old
d. Daniel Lacosta, 21 years old
e. Top Prospect: Steve Mason, 19 years old

Training Camp Position Battles: Starting Goaltender – Pascal Leclaire & Frederik Norenna

One of the few revelations for the Columbus Blue Jackets last year was the strong play of Fredrik Norenna when Pascal Leclaire went down to injury. While that might be cause for some optimism in Ohio, it still shows how this organization has not been able to really improve since their inaugural expansion year. In reality, Marc Denis & Ron Tugnutt as a goaltending tandem doesn’t look too much different than today’s tandem of Leclaire & Norenna. However, just because Marc Denis was not able to become the true #1 goalie that the team envisioned isn’t a reason that Leclaire won’t. Leclaire remains the organization’s best hope at the position, but at least the team has a couple of contingency plans in their pipeline now with 22 year old Czech Tomas Popperle, who made a strong NHL debut this past year in a callup situation, and Steve Mason, one of the top goaltenders in the OHL. Mason will return to the OHL for next year, but is now under contract, while Popperle will continue to develop in Syracuse. However, for this team to take the next step, it’s time for Lecalire to live up to his lofty draft position.

Monday, June 18, 2007

Mistakes he knew he had made.

The Samsonov error is over.

On Saturday, Chicago Blackhawks GM Dale Tallon generously offered an easier pill to swallow for Bob Gainey in getting rid of one disgruntled, ineffective, and overvalued winger Sergei Samsonov. With Tallon unable to find any takers for one of their own bad contracts (D Jassen Cullimore), and unable to use the buyout option themselves after using the 2 allowed buyouts last season on forwards Curtis Brown and Matthew Barnaby, the Blackhawks presented a unique trading partner... the only kind at this point that could potentially desire Samsonov at full price.

Predictably, Canadiens fans have rejoiced upon hearing the news of the trade, heaping loads of praise on the Habs' legendary centre. In reality, though, it highlights that Gainey is certainly a very fallible GM, but at least one who is able to recognize his own mistakes and address them. I'm going to use this trade as an opportunity to examine how Gainey minimized the impact of several bad contracts on the club's future in the process.

As a disclaimer, I'll say this. "Mistake" is a word thrown around here with the benefit of hindsight. Some of these moves looked good at the time, and I'll acknoweldge those as they come up.

Mistake #1: Donald Audette - 4 years, $12m contract (Dallas, 2001 UFA signing)

I don't want to go too far back and start bringing up mistakes made that didn't really affect the Habs, but this one did have a large impact on the Habs. The Stars were a powerhouse at the turn of the century, winning the Cup in 1999 and losing in the Finals in 2000. After a disappointing 2nd round exit in 2001, Gainey decided the team needed an injection of offensive minded, slick, skilled players. This went contrary to the Stars' trap-heavy, physical style of Head Coach Ken Hitchcock, but with the team losing Brett Hull to free agency, any offence was considered a positive. Not only did Gainey sign the undersized but fairly prolific scorer Audette, but he also signed former Hab star Pierre Turgeon to a multi-year, multi-million dollar deal.

Within weeks, though, Gainey realized that Audette was not the answer for Hull he was looking for as the Stars struggled out of the gate. He was traded to Montreal along with Shaun Van Allen for Benoit Brunet and Martin Rucinsky after only 20 games in a Dallas uniform. Shortly after being traded, Audette cut several tendons in his wrist in a very scary incident where he was cut from a skate blade. The incident caused permanent damage and he was unable to ever play at the level he, or his team, expected him to.

This is relelvant because the 2001-02 season cost Gainey his job in Dallas. Audette's inability to produce also helped cost the Habs a playoff spot in 2002-03 (Audette even had a 10 game stint in the AHL that year). Whenever a team misses the playoffs, the job security of management comes into play. Andre Savard was replaced as GM by Gainey in June 2003, and Gainey once again became responsible for the Audette contract he negotiated. Within 3 months, Gainey was unable to find a taker for the remaining term on Audette's contract (which expired at the conclusion of 2004-05), and they agreed on a buyout in late December. This was following the buyout of both Mariusz Czerkawski and Randy MacKay in July, both contracts that Gainey had inherited from Andre Savard's tenure.

Mistake #2: Jose Theodore - 3 years, $16 million (2005 offseason)

In reality, this contract was not a mistake when inked. Theodore was widely considered one of the best goaltenders in the NHL, and I include myself in the camp who considered him an elite goalie. The fact is, the evidence up to August 2005 showed he was, as Bob Gainey put it at the time, "an elite player in a position where there are few elite players." He had won the Hart and Vezina trophies in 2002, and made an All-Star appearance in 2004. He had twice backstopped the Canadiens to the 2nd round, despite the Habs being ranked 8th and 7th in the East those playoff seasons. He was the 3rd goaltender for Team Canada at the 2004 World Cup, and was invited back for that role at the 2005 World Championships, but pulled out due to a knee injury. Perhaps that knee injury played into what would happen into his well chronicled meltdown in 2005-06. That meltdown first helped cause Claude Julien his job as head coach, then Theodore's own job as starting goaltender when Cristobal Huet took over in January 2005, his placement on Team Canada at the 2006 Olympics, and then finally Theodore's job in Montreal when he was traded on the eve of the trade deadline to Colorado for David Aebischer. A $5.33m cap hit was exchanged for a $1.9m contract.

Bob Gainey then used the money saved on Theodore's contract, as well as the increase in the cap ceiling itself, to re-sign Cristobal Huet ($2.875m), re-sign Francis Bouillon ($1.875m), and sign Sergei Samsonov ($3.525m). Increased cap space (and not retaining Jan Bulis) also allowed the Habs to swap Mike Ribeiro ($1.9m) for Janne Niinimaa ($2.5m).

Mistake #3: Sergei Samsonov - 2 years, $7.05m (2006 offseason)

It didn't work out. While Huet and Aebischer were for the most part competent (and sometimes brilliant, particularily Huet), they were unable to stop a slide down the standings in January and February that cost the Habs a playoff spot. Samsonov was dreadful, a player who spent nearly every game just skating up and down the ice along the boards, not involved in the play. Bouillon spent the first part of the season recovering from knee surgery and never regained the form that saw him become a millionaire. And Niinimaa hardly even played, let alone played well.

The point of this all is to illustrate that Samsonov was not Gainey's first misstep as the Habs' GM, nor is it likely to be his last. Just like in 2001 with Dallas, Gainey saw an opening for a slick, small offensive forward (both Audette and Samsonov are listed as 5'8"), only to eventually admit it was a mistake. And while the Theodore trade removed one problem, Gainey was unable to turn it into a real positive for the club. In theory, the Habs could've went into last season with Theodore (instead of Aebischer) backing up a re-signed Huet, with Theodore's contract not allowing the Habs to retain Bouillon or Bulis, and maybe not even allowing the Habs to take on Niinimaa's contract. And, because they still had Theodore, Samsonov would not have been acquired. We don't know how this scenario would've turned out, but it's hard to believe it would've been remarkably different in retrospect.

Now, all of that is in the past. Gainey saved himself some money by buying out Cullimore instead of Samsonov, and got Salmalienen as a throw-in. This does not make him a brilliant GM, but it does show he finds ways of getting out of tough situations. He can admit his own mistakes, and it's about time Montreal fans acknowledge that he makes them.

Here's to hoping this pattern doesn't continue this off-season. If it does, well... at least we know he'll try and find his way out of it.